Orioles

Henderson has declined in the bottom quartile of his own age group two years running, at ages when the median hitter improves. His expected numbers fell with the real ones, which rules out the comfortable explanation.

The outfield was the second-worst hitting unit in baseball. It was also, and this surprised me, a perfectly average defensive one. What that changes about the fix.

Eight drafts of elite capital, zero first-round pitchers, and a homegrown core whose trend lines all point down. The same evaluator found stars in Houston and regulars in Baltimore.