Method · trailing_late@v1

Trailing late

Behind at any point in the final eight minutes of the fourth quarter, or at any point in overtime. It is the situation behind the win-loss records people quote about who can and cannot come back.

The filter, exactly as it runs

((qtr = 4 AND game_seconds_remaining <= 480) OR qtr = 5) AND score_differential < 0

Parameters

seconds_remaining 480

Where this is arguable

A record in this situation is a team statistic. It contains the defense, the kicker and the play caller, and attributing it to the quarterback is the error this whole piece is arguing against.
Eight minutes is a convention, not a law. At four, comebacks get rarer and the records get noisier.

These are the objections I already know about. If you have a better one, or you think a different threshold tells a truer story, say so and I will re-run it with your numbers and publish what comes back.

Version 1. Older versions are never deleted, so a piece that citestrailing_late@v1 stays reproducible after this definition is revised. Source: Data: nflverse (nflfastR), CC-BY 4.0