Method · neutral_script@v1

Neutral script

Plays from the first three quarters with win probability between 20% and 80%, the game still genuinely in doubt, before desperation or coasting distorts play-calling. This is the fairest baseline for comparing players.

The filter, exactly as it runs

qtr <= 3 AND vegas_wp BETWEEN 0.2 AND 0.8

Parameters

`wp_low`	0.2
`wp_high`	0.8
`max_qtr`	3
`wp_column`	vegas_wp

Where this is arguable

Excluding Q4 entirely discards legitimate competitive football in close games.

These are the objections I already know about. If you have a better one, or you think a different threshold tells a truer story, say so and I will re-run it with your numbers and publish what comes back.

Version 1. Older versions are never deleted, so a piece that citesneutral_script@v1 stays reproducible after this definition is revised. Source: Data: nflverse (nflfastR), CC-BY 4.0