Method · late_lead_held@v1

Late lead held

A game where a team led by one to eight points with eight minutes left, and whether it went on to win. This is the outcome the rest of the analysis is trying to explain.

The filter, exactly as it runs

qtr = 4 AND game_seconds_remaining <= 480 AND score_differential >= 1 AND score_differential <= 8

Parameters

`min_lead`	1
`max_lead`	8
`seconds_remaining`	480

Where this is arguable

Eight minutes is a choice. At four minutes fewer games qualify and the ones that do are tighter.
A team can hold a lead because its offense ran the clock out, which this credits to the defense.

These are the objections I already know about. If you have a better one, or you think a different threshold tells a truer story, say so and I will re-run it with your numbers and publish what comes back.

Version 1. Older versions are never deleted, so a piece that citeslate_lead_held@v1 stays reproducible after this definition is revised. Source: Data: nflverse (nflfastR), CC-BY 4.0