Method · garbage_time@v1

Garbage time

Plays run when the game was effectively decided, one team's win probability was above 95% (or below 5%). Defenses loosen, starters sit, and stats inflate. We strip these out so "production" means production that mattered.

The filter, exactly as it runs

vegas_wp IS NOT NULL AND (vegas_wp < 0.05 OR vegas_wp > 0.95)

Parameters

`wp_floor`	0.05
`wp_ceiling`	0.95
`wp_column`	vegas_wp

Where this is arguable

A 95% threshold is a judgment call. At 90% you remove more real production; at 98% you keep junk.
vegas_wp bakes in the betting market's pregame opinion. Purists prefer wp. We show both on request.
Early-game blowouts get flagged as garbage time by win probability even in Q1, which some fans find unintuitive.

These are the objections I already know about. If you have a better one, or you think a different threshold tells a truer story, say so and I will re-run it with your numbers and publish what comes back.

Version 1. Older versions are never deleted, so a piece that citesgarbage_time@v1 stays reproducible after this definition is revised. Source: Data: nflverse (nflfastR), CC-BY 4.0